Official Match Programme · SurePredictionToday
🏆 Copa Do Brasil 📅 Thursday, 23rd April 2026
ATL
Atletico MG
L W L L W
VS
CEA
Ceara
D W W W W
GATE: PREDICTION ZONE ADMIT: 1 BETTOR REF #003118
Today's Top Prediction
Recommended Selection
1X
We're backing Atletico MG to win or draw in this fixture.
Odds
1.11
~90% implied
Confidence
78%
Strong Pick
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🎟 Today's Betslip SUPPORTING
★ Main 1X — Atletico MG to win or draw @1.11
Goals Under 2.5 70%

Supporting bets are derived from form data and are secondary to the main selection. All tips carry risk.

💸 Bettor Intelligence PRO
📊 Value Assessment
-0.1%
edge
Fair Price
Market implies 90.1%, we estimate 90%. The price is roughly in line — bet on conviction, not on edge alone.
💰 Kelly Criterion
⚠ Kelly returns a negative stake — the model finds no positive expected value at this price. Consider skipping or reducing stake.
🔥 Form Streak Tracker
Atletico MG
L W L L W W L W L W
〰 Mixed 1 in a row
Momentum 60%
Ceara
D W W W W D L D D D
〰 Mixed 3 in a row
Momentum 0%
⚔ Head to Head
Atletico MG6W
Draw3
Ceara1W
Supports Tip Atletico MG unbeaten in 9 of 10 H2H meetings.
📈 Recent Form
Atletico MG wins5/10
Ceara wins4/10
Goals per game2.1
H2H avg goals2.1
Mixed Atletico MG unbeaten in 5 of 10 recent games.
5-0-5
Atletico MG form
4-5-1
Ceara form
50%
H2H BTTS rate
2.1
H2H avg goals
⭐ Team Form Ratings
Atletico MG
Overall
5.0
Scoring
3.7
Defence
6.7
Ceara
Overall
5.5
Scoring
4.3
Defence
7.7
📐 Key Analytics
Atletico MG
1.1
Goals
scored/game
1
Goals
conceded/game
30%
Clean
sheets
Ceara
1.3
Goals
scored/game
0.7
Goals
conceded/game
50%
Clean
sheets
🎯 Combination Markets

Derived from form data. Highlighted row = highest probability in each group.

Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Home Win & BTTS No 26%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Away Win & BTTS No 21%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 13%
Home Win & Under 2.5 30%
Draw & Over 2.5 7%
Draw & Under 2.5 15%
Away Win & Over 2.5 11%
Away Win & Under 2.5 25%
📋 Match History
Head to Head
25.10.25
SA
Atletico-MG
Ceara
1
0
01.06.25
SA
Ceara
Atletico-MG
0
1
09.10.22
SA
Atletico-MG
Ceara
0
0
15.06.22
SA
Ceara
Atletico-MG
0
0
09.10.21
SA
Atletico-MG
Ceara
3
1
24.06.21
SA
Ceara
Atletico-MG
2
1
22.11.20
SA
Ceara
Atletico-MG
2
2
16.08.20
SA
Atletico-MG
Ceara
2
0
29.09.19
SA
Atletico-MG
Ceara
2
1
05.05.19
SA
Ceara
Atletico-MG
1
2
Recent Results
Atletico MG
19.04.26
SA
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
2
0
L
16.04.26
COP
Atletico-MG
Juventud
2
1
W
12.04.26
SA
Santos
Atletico-MG
1
0
L
09.04.26
COP
Puerto Cabello
Atletico-MG
2
1
L
05.04.26
SA
Atletico-MG
Athletico-PR
2
1
W
02.04.26
SA
Chapecoense-SC
Atletico-MG
0
4
W
21.03.26
SA
Fluminense
Atletico-MG
1
0
L
19.03.26
SA
Atletico-MG
Sao Paulo
1
0
W
14.03.26
SA
Vitoria
Atletico-MG
2
0
L
11.03.26
SA
Atletico-MG
Internacional
1
0
W
Ceara
19.04.26
SB
Londrina
Ceara
0
0
D
15.04.26
COP
Ceara
Jacuipense
4
1
W
12.04.26
SB
Ceara
Nautico
1
0
W
09.04.26
COP
Ceara
Fortaleza
2
0
W
04.04.26
SB
Cuiaba
Ceara
0
2
W
02.04.26
SB
Ponte Preta
Ceara
1
1
D
28.03.26
COP
Retro
Ceara
3
1
L
25.03.26
COP
Ceara
ABC
1
1
D
21.03.26
SB
Ceara
Sao Bernardo
1
1
D
17.03.26
COP
Sao Bernardo
Ceara (2 - 3 Pens)
0
0
W
🎙 Expert Analysis

On Thursday, 23rd April 2026, Atletico MG host Ceara in Copa Do Brasil. Our analysis points to Atletico MG to win or draw as the standout bet.

Atletico MG come into this showing mixed form, with 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses from their last 10 matches. They average 1.1 goals scored and 1 conceded per game.

Ceara are inconsistent on the road — 4W 5D 1L in 10 games, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.7 per match.

Historically, Atletico MG have won 6 of the last 10 meetings against Ceara, who have taken 1 victories, with 3 draws. Both teams scored in 50% of those games, averaging 2.1 goals.

With all factors considered, atletico mg to win or draw at 1.11 represents the strongest value angle in this fixture. Confirm team news before placing.


To really find an advantage in sports betting, checking the daily data is an absolute must. This pending Copa Do Brasil fixture is a dream for anyone who loves digging into stats. Taking your personal bias out of the equation is the golden rule for making money.

We start by grading the home team. Their broad season record sets the starting odds, but the real clues are always hidden in the short term. Reviewing their latest games gives us a clear look at their current offensive output and their true defensive grit.

The visiting side brings a completely different profile that needs to be decoded. It is incredibly important to weigh their long-term form against the momentum of their most recent games to uncover any oddsmaker mistakes. Past encounters also cast a huge shadow over today’s lines.

Head-to-head history regularly uncovers mental hurdles and tactical edges that automated models just miss completely. Putting these historical truths together with current momentum points us straight to the likely winner. The smart money is backing 1X, especially when you factor in the current odds of @1.11.

As the referee signals the start of the match, our analysis is officially wrapped up. The final score will prove if the numbers pointed the right way. Check out our other tips today to build a solid slip.

❓ Match Intelligence FAQ
What is the best bet for Atletico MG vs Ceara?
Our top pick is 1X — Atletico MG to win or draw at around 1.11. Confidence: 78%.
What is Atletico MG's recent form?
Atletico MG have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10 — decent form.
How has Ceara been performing?
Ceara: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games — inconsistent.
What is the H2H record?
Atletico MG 6 wins vs Ceara's 1, with 3 draws in 10 meetings. Avg 2.1 goals.
How many goals are expected?
Recent matches involving these sides average 2.1 goals. H2H BTTS rate: 50%.
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