Official Match Programme · SurePredictionToday
🏆 Estonia Meistriliiga 📅 Saturday, 11th July 2026 ⏰ 3:00 pm 📍 Männiku Stadium (Tallinn) ⏳ —
NOM
Nomme Utd
L W L W L
VS
KUR
Kuressaare
L L D W D
GATE: PREDICTION ZONE ADMIT: 1 BETTOR REF #003977
Today's Top Prediction
Recommended Selection
Over 2.5
We're backing over 2.5 goals in this fixture.
Odds
1.48
~80% implied
Confidence
78%
Strong Pick
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🎟 Today's Betslip SUPPORTING
★ Main Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals @1.48
Goals Over 2.5 75%
Goals Over 1.5 85%
Both Teams To Score BTTS — Yes 70%
H2H Over 2.5 78%

Supporting bets are derived from form data and are secondary to the main selection. All tips carry risk.

💸 Bettor Intelligence PRO
📊 Value Assessment
+12.4%
edge
Value Bet
The market prices this at 67.6% but our model gives it 80%. That's a +12.4% edge — statistically meaningful.
💰 Kelly Criterion
Strategy% of bankrolle.g. $1,000
Full Kelly 38.3% $383.00
Half Kelly 19.2% $192.00
Quarter Kelly 9.6% $96.00
Most professionals use Half or Quarter Kelly to manage variance. Full Kelly maximises expected growth but carries higher drawdown risk.
🔥 Form Streak Tracker
Nomme Utd
L W L W L L L L W W
〰 Mixed 2 in a row
Momentum 40%
Kuressaare
L L D W D W L L L L
🥶 Cold 4 in a row
Momentum 20%
⚔ Head to Head
Nomme Utd2W
Draw4
Kuressaare3W
Supports Tip Over 2.5 goals in 78% of H2H meetings (avg 3.6).
📈 Recent Form
Nomme Utd wins4/10
Kuressaare wins2/10
Goals per game3.1
H2H avg goals3.6
Supports Tip Over 2.5 goals in 75% of recent games.
4-0-6
Nomme Utd form
2-2-6
Kuressaare form
100%
H2H BTTS rate
3.6
H2H avg goals
⭐ Team Form Ratings
Nomme Utd
Overall
4.0
Scoring
5.3
Defence
2.7
Kuressaare
Overall
2.6
Scoring
2.7
Defence
5.0
📐 Key Analytics
Nomme Utd
1.6
Goals
scored/game
2.2
Goals
conceded/game
0%
Clean
sheets
Kuressaare
0.8
Goals
scored/game
1.5
Goals
conceded/game
10%
Clean
sheets
🎯 Combination Markets

Derived from form data. Highlighted row = highest probability in each group.

Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 40%
Home Win & BTTS No 17%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 4%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 20%
Away Win & BTTS No 9%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 43%
Home Win & Under 2.5 14%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 4%
Away Win & Over 2.5 22%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
📋 Match History
Head to Head
20.05.26
ML
Kuressaare
Nomme Utd
2
1
25.04.26
ML
Nomme Utd
Kuressaare
2
1
07.02.26
CF
Kuressaare
Nomme Utd
3
3
19.01.25
CF
Kuressaare
Nomme Utd
2
1
28.09.24
ML
Kuressaare
Nomme Utd
4
1
01.09.24
ML
Nomme Utd
Kuressaare
2
2
16.06.24
ML
Kuressaare
Nomme Utd
1
1
04.05.24
ML
Nomme Utd
Kuressaare
1
1
17.02.23
CF
Nomme Utd
Kuressaare
3
1
Recent Results
Nomme Utd
03.07.26
ML
Nomme Utd
Kalju
1
3
L
20.06.26
ML
Harju JK Laagri
Nomme Utd
1
3
W
17.06.26
ML
Nomme Utd
Levadia
1
2
L
13.06.26
ML
Narva
Nomme Utd
1
2
W
29.05.26
ML
Nomme Utd
Flora
0
4
L
20.05.26
ML
Kuressaare
Nomme Utd
2
1
L
15.05.26
ML
Tammeka
Nomme Utd
3
1
L
10.05.26
ML
Nomme Utd
Paide
2
3
L
02.05.26
ML
Parnu JK Vaprus
Nomme Utd
2
3
W
25.04.26
ML
Nomme Utd
Kuressaare
2
1
W
Kuressaare
02.07.26
ML
Kuressaare
Flora
0
3
L
26.06.26
ML
Parnu JK Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
L
16.06.26
ML
Kuressaare
Narva
0
0
D
13.06.26
ML
Harju JK Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
W
31.05.26
ML
Paide
Kuressaare
1
1
D
20.05.26
ML
Kuressaare
Nomme Utd
2
1
W
17.05.26
ML
Kuressaare
Kalju
0
2
L
08.05.26
ML
Tammeka
Kuressaare
1
0
L
02.05.26
ML
Kuressaare
Levadia
1
2
L
25.04.26
ML
Nomme Utd
Kuressaare
2
1
L
Venue Records
Nomme Utd at Home
03.07.26
ML
Nomme Utd
Kalju
1
3
L
17.06.26
ML
Nomme Utd
Levadia
1
2
L
29.05.26
ML
Nomme Utd
Flora
0
4
L
10.05.26
ML
Nomme Utd
Paide
2
3
L
25.04.26
ML
Nomme Utd
Kuressaare
2
1
W
18.04.26
ML
Nomme Utd
Harju JK Laagri
1
2
L
11.04.26
ML
Nomme Utd
Narva
5
1
W
21.03.26
ML
Nomme Utd
Tammeka
2
3
L
14.03.26
ML
Nomme Utd
Parnu JK Vaprus
7
1
W
14.02.26
CF
Nomme Utd
FC Tallinn
3
0
W
Kuressaare Away
26.06.26
ML
Parnu JK Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
L
13.06.26
ML
Harju JK Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
W
31.05.26
ML
Paide
Kuressaare
1
1
D
08.05.26
ML
Tammeka
Kuressaare
1
0
L
25.04.26
ML
Nomme Utd
Kuressaare
2
1
L
18.04.26
ML
Narva
Kuressaare
1
2
W
07.04.26
ML
Flora
Kuressaare
2
1
L
21.03.26
ML
Kalju
Kuressaare
4
0
L
08.03.26
ML
Levadia
Kuressaare
2
0
L
31.01.26
CF
Parnu JK Vaprus
Kuressaare
9
2
L
🎙 Expert Analysis

On Saturday, 11th July 2026, Nomme Utd host Kuressaare at Männiku Stadium (Tallinn) in Estonia Meistriliiga. Our analysis points to over 2.5 goals as the standout bet.

Nomme Utd come into this showing mixed form, with 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses from their last 10 matches. They average 1.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game.

Kuressaare are struggling away from home — 2W 2D 6L in 10 games, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.5 per match.

Historically, Nomme Utd have won 2 of the last 9 meetings against Kuressaare, who have taken 3 victories, with 4 draws. Both teams scored in 100% of those games, averaging 3.6 goals.

With all factors considered, over 2.5 goals at 1.48 represents the strongest value angle in this fixture. Confirm team news before placing.


Everyone says do your research. Almost nobody does it properly. Proper research means setting aside what you already think you know about both teams, reading only the verified recent evidence, and then checking that evidence against the price on offer. Applied honestly, that process produced this Estonia Meistriliiga preview.

The hosts turn up on 2 wins, 3 losses from their last 5 games. That run is plain for the market to see, which means it is largely priced in already. The more revealing question is what those recent home games actually tell us — whether the manager’s setup is genuinely clicking, whether the strongest eleven has been fit and available, and whether the results have reflected real quality or a bit of fortune in one direction or the other. Sustainable form holds across a handful of matches. Flukes fade. Männiku Stadium (Tallinn) tends to sort the two quickly.

The visitors arrive on 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses from their last 5 games. We went straight to the recent road record, because that is where the current truth lives for a travelling team. Are they pressing early and taking their chances with confidence, or do they need the comfort of home to find their best? Recent away results answer that without much ambiguity.

With both teams read carefully, the position we trust is Over 2.5 at @1.48, which the numbers put at around 80%. The match begins at 3:00 pm.

There is a full slate of predictions on the site today, each given the same honest treatment — worth a proper look before you decide where your stake belongs. It is worth repeating: the side that looks the part on paper and the side that turns up on the day are not always the same team, and recent form is the surest bridge between the two.

❓ Match Intelligence FAQ
What is the best bet for Nomme Utd vs Kuressaare?
Our top pick is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals at around 1.48. Confidence: 78%.
What is Nomme Utd's recent form?
Nomme Utd have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 10 — inconsistent.
How has Kuressaare been performing?
Kuressaare: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games — poor form.
What is the H2H record?
Nomme Utd 2 wins vs Kuressaare's 3, with 4 draws in 9 meetings. Avg 3.6 goals.
How many goals are expected?
Recent matches involving these sides average 3.1 goals. H2H BTTS rate: 100%.
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